So not the best start to the year at 3-4 though if Michigan St doesn't take a knee on the 4 and Georgia doesn't drop a touchdown pass that would have made it 31-6 before halftime I could have easily been 5-2. Really, the only game I shouldn't have taken was Auburn. I remain pretty surprised that of all the heavy favorites only West Virginia decided to run up the score, I can't imagine that holds true this week but we'll see.
1) UNC -10 @Wake
Now I usually hate the ACC, and I can't say I know a lot about Wake, but I think UNC is going to be one of the more underrated teams of the year. The talent pool if definitely there, certainly 2 touchdowns better than Wake, and in beating Elon 62-0 they showed they aren't afraid to try for an entire game. When it comes down to it, 10 points isn't a lot in college football. I don't see UNC scoring less than 28 and I can't see Wake scoring more than 17. UNC 34 Wake 13, confidence 3 out of 5 chest waxings.
2) Nebraska -5 @ UCLA
UCLA looked a lot better than they are and the Huskers handled a pretty good Southern Miss team. UCLA also gave up a ton on the ground and now have to face one of the better rushing attacks in the nation. I know it's on the road but it's UCLA, this isn't exactly playing in Death Valley. I don't think UCLA is all that much better than Southern Miss, if at all, and I don't see them stopping the balanced attack of Nebraska. Huskers 37 UCLA 23, confidence 4 out of 5 sweater vests.
3) San Diego State -6 vs Army
I bet against San Diego State last week, and although down 14-0 after one Q they fought back to play solid defense and cover on the road against a Washington team with a very good offense. Army is a tough one to prepare for, and I lost this game last year picking Army at home, which was dumb, but given how SDST played against Washington, the fact that it's their home opener and the fact that Army sucks I just don't see how they don't win by more than a touchdown. I can't see Army winning this game. Aztecs 31 Army 20, confidence 4 out of 5 Xtra large Big Green Eggs.
4) Georgia -2.5 @ Missouri
Welcome to the SEC. Bulldogs 41 Tigers 30, confidence 5 out of 5 rhino horns.
5) Iowa -5 vs Iowa State
OK, I'm going all favorites, which is Big Dobs style, but a few things working here. First, Iowa barely beat a very good NIU team last week, at home. Second Iowa state is coming in cocky after beating Tulsa by 15 and having upset Iowa last year. I think NIU will end up being one of the better defenses that Iowa faces all year and if the Pinstripe bowl last year is any indication Iowa St can't stop the run. I expect the Hawkeyes to control the clock and look for a statement game after last week's close call. At the end of the day I think Iowa wants this game more. Iowa 24 Iowa St 13, confidence 4 out of 5 Leffe blondes.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Big Dobs Season 3: Return of Dobsi
Big Dobs is just months removed from being just the second person in history to win both Time and Playgirl "Man of the Year," and despite back to back on fire seasons, Dobs is staying humble, or at least as humble as the most important man in the history of the world can be. The start of the college football season is unquestionably the most exciting time of year and there is no doubt that my loyal followers, both of them, are erect with anticipation. Onto the games....
1) Washington St +13 @ BYU - I expect buzz on a Mike Leech revived Cougar squad and 13 is a line that says we expect them to be better but no way they beat BYU on the road week 1. They very well might not, but I think they have a shot, regardless I don't expect BYU to be able to slow down Wash U enough to cover 13. Confidence 3 out of 5
2) Tennessee -3 @ NC State - NC State is a bush league school and Tennessee is a middle of the road SEC team with loads more talent. Say no more, this is my best bet of the week, Tenn wins by at least ten. Confidence 5 out of 5.
3) Michigan St -7 vs Boise St - Boise lost everything, and they don't exactly recruit top 25 classes. Michigan St has too much on the defensive line for Boise to win with trick plays. This spread is low solely based on what they did to Georgia last year. It will be close at halftime but the Spartans eventually overpower the Broncos and win by 2 scores. Confidence 3 out of 5.
4) West Virginia -24 vs Marshall - Now starts my string of high powered offenses looking to make week one statements by beating the absolute bag out of wildly inferior competition. Marshall might score 2, even 3 times but no chance WVU doesn't see the end zone at least 7. Chung Li style bloodbath. Confidence 4 out 5.
5) While we're on Big Dobs style beat downs let's pick 5 other statement games where I'm highly confident in the favorite:
Georgia -37.5 vs Buffalo (Buffalo has no chance of scoring)
Wisconsin -35 vs Northern Iowa (Wisconsin will have 70 at halftime)
Washington -14.5 vs San Diego St (Washington will win 10 games this year)
Oregon -35.5 vs Arkansas St (Oregon will score its first 4 TDs in under 10 plays)
Alabama -12.5 vs Michigan ( Come on, I know this recipe by heart)
10) To cap it all off, and just because I love Chick-Fil-A so darn much - Aubun +3 vs Clemson (Auburn wins by 10) Confidence 4 out of 5.
So there it is, a whopping 10 games to start the season, I won't usually pick 10 games but these spreads are way too low, and in a few weeks you will start seeing lines in 50s+.
Big Dobs is also going to try something new this year, since he hasn't lost a Rutgers game in 3 years, granted he only picks 3-4 a season, Big Dobs is going to pick them all and keep track separately. This week, Rutgers -29 @ Tulane, is tough and I left it off my confidence picks. While I think Rutgers has the talent on offense to score in bunches this is still a NJ smash mouth team that will win 10+ games, but often win ugly. Giving up 20 on the road is a lot but ultimately Tulane won't score more than a touchdown and Rutgers can easily put up over 28 if they play like they should, so Rutgers -20 @ Tulane, Confidence 2 out of 5.
Please leave comments and enjoy the season. I would love to double my reader base this year but I'm not sure where those incremental 2 people will come from.
Best of luck,
Big Dobs
1) Washington St +13 @ BYU - I expect buzz on a Mike Leech revived Cougar squad and 13 is a line that says we expect them to be better but no way they beat BYU on the road week 1. They very well might not, but I think they have a shot, regardless I don't expect BYU to be able to slow down Wash U enough to cover 13. Confidence 3 out of 5
2) Tennessee -3 @ NC State - NC State is a bush league school and Tennessee is a middle of the road SEC team with loads more talent. Say no more, this is my best bet of the week, Tenn wins by at least ten. Confidence 5 out of 5.
3) Michigan St -7 vs Boise St - Boise lost everything, and they don't exactly recruit top 25 classes. Michigan St has too much on the defensive line for Boise to win with trick plays. This spread is low solely based on what they did to Georgia last year. It will be close at halftime but the Spartans eventually overpower the Broncos and win by 2 scores. Confidence 3 out of 5.
4) West Virginia -24 vs Marshall - Now starts my string of high powered offenses looking to make week one statements by beating the absolute bag out of wildly inferior competition. Marshall might score 2, even 3 times but no chance WVU doesn't see the end zone at least 7. Chung Li style bloodbath. Confidence 4 out 5.
5) While we're on Big Dobs style beat downs let's pick 5 other statement games where I'm highly confident in the favorite:
Georgia -37.5 vs Buffalo (Buffalo has no chance of scoring)
Wisconsin -35 vs Northern Iowa (Wisconsin will have 70 at halftime)
Washington -14.5 vs San Diego St (Washington will win 10 games this year)
Oregon -35.5 vs Arkansas St (Oregon will score its first 4 TDs in under 10 plays)
Alabama -12.5 vs Michigan ( Come on, I know this recipe by heart)
10) To cap it all off, and just because I love Chick-Fil-A so darn much - Aubun +3 vs Clemson (Auburn wins by 10) Confidence 4 out of 5.
So there it is, a whopping 10 games to start the season, I won't usually pick 10 games but these spreads are way too low, and in a few weeks you will start seeing lines in 50s+.
Big Dobs is also going to try something new this year, since he hasn't lost a Rutgers game in 3 years, granted he only picks 3-4 a season, Big Dobs is going to pick them all and keep track separately. This week, Rutgers -29 @ Tulane, is tough and I left it off my confidence picks. While I think Rutgers has the talent on offense to score in bunches this is still a NJ smash mouth team that will win 10+ games, but often win ugly. Giving up 20 on the road is a lot but ultimately Tulane won't score more than a touchdown and Rutgers can easily put up over 28 if they play like they should, so Rutgers -20 @ Tulane, Confidence 2 out of 5.
Please leave comments and enjoy the season. I would love to double my reader base this year but I'm not sure where those incremental 2 people will come from.
Best of luck,
Big Dobs
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Analyzing the Data
Now that we are through week 8 of Big Dobs second season offering his wisdom to the masses I thought it appropriate to break down some of the data to see where Big D flourishes, and where he could use some work. Big D's performance in:
Big East games - 14-4-1 74%...The Big Dobs dominates the Big East, no surprise. Of Big D's 4 losses only one was a Big East conference game, 2 of the losses involved non BCS league teams.
SEC games - 9-1 90%...Big Dobs knows SEC football. Frankly, I'm surprised the sample size wasn't larger but SEC games are easy, pick the best team or two in the country every week, Auburn in 2012, LSU and Bama in 2011.
ACC games - 6-2 75%, I'm surprised this isn't lower. I feel like I always lose ACC games. One thing to note, most of these wins are non-conference games, ex. WVY vs MD, UNC vs Rutgers, Stanford vs Duke, and it's betting against the ACC.
PAC 12 games - 6-1 86%, This sample needs to be bigger. I always feel like I have good picks in the Pac 12 but always shy away form actually picking the games. I pretty much just pick Stanford every week and that seems to work well.
Big 12 - 3-2 50%, Not a lot to go by here and my wins involved one, or both, of Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. I should stay away form picks here unless they involve those teams in 2011.
Big 10 games - 4-8 33%, finally a league where Big Dobs sucks, and no surprise it's a conference full of losers. I lose in conference and I lose out of conference, I hate the Big 10.
Non-BCS games - 5-8 39%, this is barely better than the Big 10. Big Dobs seems to lose every time he bets on an academy, I think picking Army over Kent State in 2010 got Big D cocky, now he just gets crushed. Other teams that I consistently lose with/against, SMU, TCU and UCF. Notice all three schools are complete jokes and two are in Dallas, which is the same city as Houston but with an attitude problem. Once I told this fat nerd that my wife was from Houston (after him telling me he was from Texas) he scoffed at Big Dobs as if I told him my wife was from the Sudan, where did fat nerd grow up...Plano. Um...ok, so your fat, you play computer games, your short and you're from Plano.
Big Dobs tweeted (@Jackburton82) his picks out earlier and will provide write-ups on the logic later, but they are
Arkansas -9 @ Vandy
Texas A&M -10.5 vs Missouri
Wisconsin -7.5 vs Ohio State
Stanford =7.5 @ USC
South Carolina -3.5 @ Tennessee
Big East games - 14-4-1 74%...The Big Dobs dominates the Big East, no surprise. Of Big D's 4 losses only one was a Big East conference game, 2 of the losses involved non BCS league teams.
SEC games - 9-1 90%...Big Dobs knows SEC football. Frankly, I'm surprised the sample size wasn't larger but SEC games are easy, pick the best team or two in the country every week, Auburn in 2012, LSU and Bama in 2011.
ACC games - 6-2 75%, I'm surprised this isn't lower. I feel like I always lose ACC games. One thing to note, most of these wins are non-conference games, ex. WVY vs MD, UNC vs Rutgers, Stanford vs Duke, and it's betting against the ACC.
PAC 12 games - 6-1 86%, This sample needs to be bigger. I always feel like I have good picks in the Pac 12 but always shy away form actually picking the games. I pretty much just pick Stanford every week and that seems to work well.
Big 12 - 3-2 50%, Not a lot to go by here and my wins involved one, or both, of Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. I should stay away form picks here unless they involve those teams in 2011.
Big 10 games - 4-8 33%, finally a league where Big Dobs sucks, and no surprise it's a conference full of losers. I lose in conference and I lose out of conference, I hate the Big 10.
Non-BCS games - 5-8 39%, this is barely better than the Big 10. Big Dobs seems to lose every time he bets on an academy, I think picking Army over Kent State in 2010 got Big D cocky, now he just gets crushed. Other teams that I consistently lose with/against, SMU, TCU and UCF. Notice all three schools are complete jokes and two are in Dallas, which is the same city as Houston but with an attitude problem. Once I told this fat nerd that my wife was from Houston (after him telling me he was from Texas) he scoffed at Big Dobs as if I told him my wife was from the Sudan, where did fat nerd grow up...Plano. Um...ok, so your fat, you play computer games, your short and you're from Plano.
Big Dobs tweeted (@Jackburton82) his picks out earlier and will provide write-ups on the logic later, but they are
Arkansas -9 @ Vandy
Texas A&M -10.5 vs Missouri
Wisconsin -7.5 vs Ohio State
Stanford =7.5 @ USC
South Carolina -3.5 @ Tennessee
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Class is starting, your teacher, Big Dobs
It's Saturday and everything is leading up to LSU-Bama. This is actually a pretty dry week for games, with both nothing big in terms of match-ups and nothing glaring in terms of catching my eye as a huge mis-pricing in the spread. That said, Big Dobs always has a couple of winners up his sleeve.
Cincinnati +3 @ South Florida - South florida has followed form this season, big upset early on (Notre Dame), everyone thinks they're better than they are which leads to an inflated ranking (16), then they play a decent opponent on the road and get crushed, Pitt. In this game the inflation is still there, though considerably smaller, as they play a better than decent opponent at home. This game is watchable with two very good QBs, and on paper I'd say Cin has a slight advantage so I'll take them and the points. Per my rule of underdogs on the road, I do think the Bearcats have a chance to win. Cincinnati 27 South Florida 24. Confidence - 3 out of 5 Vail penthouses.
Virginia Tech -21 vs Boston College - Tech has been pretty underwhelming up until last weeks blowout win @ Wake. 21 is a lot of points for a team that only beat ECU by 7 and Arkansas St by 19, but I have to think that they put it all together one of these weeks and blow out a doormat, Big Dobs sees that happening this week. Everyone on BC either sucks or is hurt, or is both hurt and sucks, not a great combo when you're going to Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 42 Boston College 10. Confidence - 3 our of 5 life size Han Solo wax statues.
Wisconsin -7 @ Michigan State - Tough game, Wisconsin has obviously crushed everyone and Michigan St really only looked bad @ Notre Dame. In the end I think the Wisconsin offense is better than the ND offense, and I don't see the MSU O being able to keep up. 7 points isn't a ton, it basically means you have to go with the team that you think will win, and that's Wisconsin. Wisconsin 31 Michgan State 21. Confidence - 3 out of 5 weekends at Sir Richard Branson's private island.
Cincinnati +3 @ South Florida - South florida has followed form this season, big upset early on (Notre Dame), everyone thinks they're better than they are which leads to an inflated ranking (16), then they play a decent opponent on the road and get crushed, Pitt. In this game the inflation is still there, though considerably smaller, as they play a better than decent opponent at home. This game is watchable with two very good QBs, and on paper I'd say Cin has a slight advantage so I'll take them and the points. Per my rule of underdogs on the road, I do think the Bearcats have a chance to win. Cincinnati 27 South Florida 24. Confidence - 3 out of 5 Vail penthouses.
Virginia Tech -21 vs Boston College - Tech has been pretty underwhelming up until last weeks blowout win @ Wake. 21 is a lot of points for a team that only beat ECU by 7 and Arkansas St by 19, but I have to think that they put it all together one of these weeks and blow out a doormat, Big Dobs sees that happening this week. Everyone on BC either sucks or is hurt, or is both hurt and sucks, not a great combo when you're going to Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 42 Boston College 10. Confidence - 3 our of 5 life size Han Solo wax statues.
Wisconsin -7 @ Michigan State - Tough game, Wisconsin has obviously crushed everyone and Michigan St really only looked bad @ Notre Dame. In the end I think the Wisconsin offense is better than the ND offense, and I don't see the MSU O being able to keep up. 7 points isn't a ton, it basically means you have to go with the team that you think will win, and that's Wisconsin. Wisconsin 31 Michgan State 21. Confidence - 3 out of 5 weekends at Sir Richard Branson's private island.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
This is for you Carl Winslow
Big Dobs TGIF Special:
Rutgers +2 @ Louisville
A few things at work here as 5-1 Rutgers travels to play 2-4 L'Ville.
There are two solid defenses matching up here - Rutgers leads the nation in +/- and is 2nd in sacks. Luoisville has kept a handful of good offensive football teams in check, but they haven't created the turnovers Rutgers has. On offense, Rutgers is loaded with potential but hasn't been able to put the pieces together on a consistent basis, Louisville has just sucked. I don't see either team having a lot of success on the offensive side of the ball and would expect something similar to the first half of the Pitt/Rutgers game. Eventually in that game Rutgers won the field position battle and put some points on the board, and I just don't think Louisville has the athletes to match up.
Plus, Schiano is a beast on Thursday and Friday night games - I can't bet against the guy in primetime.
Rutgers 27 Louisville 13 - Confidence - 4 out of 5 suitcases full of gold bars
Rutgers +2 @ Louisville
A few things at work here as 5-1 Rutgers travels to play 2-4 L'Ville.
There are two solid defenses matching up here - Rutgers leads the nation in +/- and is 2nd in sacks. Luoisville has kept a handful of good offensive football teams in check, but they haven't created the turnovers Rutgers has. On offense, Rutgers is loaded with potential but hasn't been able to put the pieces together on a consistent basis, Louisville has just sucked. I don't see either team having a lot of success on the offensive side of the ball and would expect something similar to the first half of the Pitt/Rutgers game. Eventually in that game Rutgers won the field position battle and put some points on the board, and I just don't think Louisville has the athletes to match up.
Plus, Schiano is a beast on Thursday and Friday night games - I can't bet against the guy in primetime.
Rutgers 27 Louisville 13 - Confidence - 4 out of 5 suitcases full of gold bars
Friday, October 14, 2011
It's not about how hard you fall, it's about how fast you get up
Big Dobs suffered last week. What did Bog Dobs do on Sunday morning? He spent 2 hours with his shirt off staring in the mirror giving an occasional pec flex, but mostly thinking about where he went wrong. What did Big Dobs change to take an 11-7 season to 12-12 in one week? Overconfidence, lack of discipline, lack of proper research? Perhaps it was a little of all three, but now Big Dobs comes back humbled, ready to prove to his two loyal readers that he is indeed the Luke Skywalker of College Football.
And now, for the picks...
Bet of the Week - Oklahoma State -7 @ Texas
Texas is a classic example of a preseason unranked team, based on talent and experience, going undefeated against inferior competition until they are really tested, last week's game against Oklahoma, and we all know what happened there. Big Dobs got caught with his pants down and it isn't going to happen again. Oklahoma State saw what rival Oklahoma did to the Longhorns last week and they will want to replicate that ass beating. Look for State to step on the gas and not let up, this could get ugly fast and the spread doesn't indicate that. Oklahoma State 45 Texas 17. Confidence 5 out of 5 XL Health deals (though actually getting paid for it).
Auburn +2 vs Florida
See Texas logic above, I think this pertains to both of these teams, though of course this is relative to the SEC so they are still better than most across the nation. Both teams are coming off big losses, Florida two in a row. There are two elements that stand out to Big Dobs, Auburn is good at home and Florida is young and hurt. Last week I got crushed on Air Force vs Notre Dame because I went against a simple rule, don't take dogs in college football unless you think they can win outright, especially on the road. Well, Auburn is at home and think they win outright. Auburn 31 Florida 28. Confidence 4 out of 5 courtside Knicks seats (in a non-lockout season).
BYU +3 @ Oregon State
BYU, a dog on the road, BUT I think they win outright. The line says these are two evenly matched teams but I'll have o disagree with that. Yes, OSU is playing better, but this is still a team that lost to Sacramento State at home (I didn't know that was a real school, seriously) and is only getting love because they beat Arizona at home last week for their first win of the season. Maybe Oregon St has turned it around, but I doubt it. BYU is a solid program, yes they turned the ball over a ton against an average Utah team and got crushed, but they have a very solid win against UCF. BYU also showed it can play on the road winning at Ole Miss and playing Texas tough in Austin, BYU should have won that game. At the end of the day BYU is the better program and the better team. BYU 27 Oregon St 21. Confidence 3 out of 5 Rolex Presidentials.
LSU -17 @ Tennessee, Wisconsin -39.5 vs Indiana, Georgia -11 @ Vandy
I lumped these games together because they are all the same. LSU and Bama are competing against each other to see who can win by more each week, so LSU ain't letting up on Tennessee team QB's by the 2nd best current Don Bosco QB, Matt Simms. Georgia feels like an underdog and Vandy has been half decent only because of an amazing +/-, look for that to normalize and Georgia to play with a chip on it;s shoulder, they win in a blowout. Finally, this is the biggest spread I have ever taken, I'm basically saying Wisconsin is going to drop 80 on Indiana, well they probably will. This reminds me of when I was going into my Sr year of college, a TE for the Colby College White Mules. I went to visit a buddy in Madison and I consistently got the question from people what would happen if Colby played Wisconsin. Both teams had studs from NJ, Colby had Big Dobs and Wisconsin had Ron Dayne. My response was always the same, we'd lose in Madison, but if Wisconsin came to the Mule Dome we'd probably win. People actually argued me on this but the fact of the matter was Wisconsin could have won by whatever they wanted to, they literally could have scored on every play and everyone on Colby would have either died or just been seriously injured. This game is exactly like that, seriously, exactly like that.
LSU 38 Tenn 14
Georgia 27 Vandy 3
Wisconsin 87 Indiana 7
Confidence 4 out of 5 Audi A7s
And just because I've been asked. I like Michigan State but don't have any confidence, so it's not an official Big Dobs pick.
Best of luck to my platinum club members on Saturday's 6 pack, let's have a safe and enjoyable Holiday Weekend.
And now, for the picks...
Bet of the Week - Oklahoma State -7 @ Texas
Texas is a classic example of a preseason unranked team, based on talent and experience, going undefeated against inferior competition until they are really tested, last week's game against Oklahoma, and we all know what happened there. Big Dobs got caught with his pants down and it isn't going to happen again. Oklahoma State saw what rival Oklahoma did to the Longhorns last week and they will want to replicate that ass beating. Look for State to step on the gas and not let up, this could get ugly fast and the spread doesn't indicate that. Oklahoma State 45 Texas 17. Confidence 5 out of 5 XL Health deals (though actually getting paid for it).
Auburn +2 vs Florida
See Texas logic above, I think this pertains to both of these teams, though of course this is relative to the SEC so they are still better than most across the nation. Both teams are coming off big losses, Florida two in a row. There are two elements that stand out to Big Dobs, Auburn is good at home and Florida is young and hurt. Last week I got crushed on Air Force vs Notre Dame because I went against a simple rule, don't take dogs in college football unless you think they can win outright, especially on the road. Well, Auburn is at home and think they win outright. Auburn 31 Florida 28. Confidence 4 out of 5 courtside Knicks seats (in a non-lockout season).
BYU +3 @ Oregon State
BYU, a dog on the road, BUT I think they win outright. The line says these are two evenly matched teams but I'll have o disagree with that. Yes, OSU is playing better, but this is still a team that lost to Sacramento State at home (I didn't know that was a real school, seriously) and is only getting love because they beat Arizona at home last week for their first win of the season. Maybe Oregon St has turned it around, but I doubt it. BYU is a solid program, yes they turned the ball over a ton against an average Utah team and got crushed, but they have a very solid win against UCF. BYU also showed it can play on the road winning at Ole Miss and playing Texas tough in Austin, BYU should have won that game. At the end of the day BYU is the better program and the better team. BYU 27 Oregon St 21. Confidence 3 out of 5 Rolex Presidentials.
LSU -17 @ Tennessee, Wisconsin -39.5 vs Indiana, Georgia -11 @ Vandy
I lumped these games together because they are all the same. LSU and Bama are competing against each other to see who can win by more each week, so LSU ain't letting up on Tennessee team QB's by the 2nd best current Don Bosco QB, Matt Simms. Georgia feels like an underdog and Vandy has been half decent only because of an amazing +/-, look for that to normalize and Georgia to play with a chip on it;s shoulder, they win in a blowout. Finally, this is the biggest spread I have ever taken, I'm basically saying Wisconsin is going to drop 80 on Indiana, well they probably will. This reminds me of when I was going into my Sr year of college, a TE for the Colby College White Mules. I went to visit a buddy in Madison and I consistently got the question from people what would happen if Colby played Wisconsin. Both teams had studs from NJ, Colby had Big Dobs and Wisconsin had Ron Dayne. My response was always the same, we'd lose in Madison, but if Wisconsin came to the Mule Dome we'd probably win. People actually argued me on this but the fact of the matter was Wisconsin could have won by whatever they wanted to, they literally could have scored on every play and everyone on Colby would have either died or just been seriously injured. This game is exactly like that, seriously, exactly like that.
LSU 38 Tenn 14
Georgia 27 Vandy 3
Wisconsin 87 Indiana 7
Confidence 4 out of 5 Audi A7s
And just because I've been asked. I like Michigan State but don't have any confidence, so it's not an official Big Dobs pick.
Best of luck to my platinum club members on Saturday's 6 pack, let's have a safe and enjoyable Holiday Weekend.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
NCAA week 5
Big Dobs is off to another solid start breaking it open last week with a 5-2 showing. This week Big Dobs bets against two big name schools having off years, with 2 military academies and with the best team in the nation, LSU.
Iowa +4 @ Penn St - Penn State is awful, seriously, they suck. This might look like a Penn St no-brainer with the bigger name team at home, but Iowa has a far better offense and a decent enough defense to not only keep this game very close, but also potentially win. Big Dobs doesn't like to take dogs unless I think they have a shot to win outright, and Iowa has a great chance at winning this game. I think this is one of those years in Happy Valley where the ending is in sight for JoePa (pun intended) Iowa 24 Penn State 13. Confidence 3 out of 5 seafood towers.
Army -2.5 @ Miami (OH) - Big Dobs paid the points last week with Cin at home against Miami (OH) and it paid off big time. Miami couldn't even score a point on a very mediocre Bearcats D, which is more pathetic than Uncle Jesse living in Danny Tanner's attic with his wife and two kids. This is a really really really shitty team and Army isn't half bad. I don't see Miami stopping the Army running game, and I don't see Miami keeping it close enough to have a shot to win in the end. This is a game that Army knows it needs to win to keep in the bowl hunt, and I'll take the Army any time when it's a question of motivation. Army 31 Miami 10. Confidence 4 out 5 Malibu beachfront homes.
Air Force +16 @ Notre Dame - This is a situation where Big Dobs doesn't see Air Force winning, but over 2 TDs is way too much. Air Force is a solid team and Big Dobs rarely bets against the academies. Notre Dame has been incredibly inconsistent this year, and although far more talented, it has a good chance at turning the ball over and playing down to the level of competition. How is this spread bigger than the one last week against Purdue? Notre Dame 24 Air Force 21. Confidence 3 out of 5 rolls of Hermes toilet paper.
Nebraska -11 vs Ohio State - Like Penn State, Ohio State is complete garbage and totally overrated. Nebraska was clowned last week by Wisconsin, welcome to the Big Ten, and will want to use this Ohio St game to show that it belongs. Look for a highly motivated Nebraska team to put its foot on the gas and not let up. I don't see how Ohio State scores. Nebraska 34 Ohio State 17. Confidence 3 out of 5 gold bars.
Texas +9.5 vs Oklahoma - The Red River Shootout has been decided by a touchdown or less in each of the last 4 years, even last year when TX couldn't even beat UCLA nor make a bowl game. This is a solid TX team, and although a much more talented OK team, it is overrated. I think TX has a legit shot of winning, this could be just like the '08 game. 9.5 is just too much in game that is always this tight. Oklahoma 31 Texas 28. Confidence 3 out of 5 50 acre hunting ranches.
LSU -14 vs Florida - LSU is battling Bama week in and week out for the number 1 ranking in the polls, and since neither team will lose margin of victory matters. LSU definitely saw what Bama did to Florida on the road last week so it will need to pull out everything to have just as good of a showing at home. Look for LSU to attack the gators non stop and try to earn a blowout victory. 2 TDs is a lot against a solid Florida team, but LSU is motivated to win by more than that. LSU 38 Florida 13. Confidence 3 out of 5 weekend getaways to Paris.
Iowa +4 @ Penn St - Penn State is awful, seriously, they suck. This might look like a Penn St no-brainer with the bigger name team at home, but Iowa has a far better offense and a decent enough defense to not only keep this game very close, but also potentially win. Big Dobs doesn't like to take dogs unless I think they have a shot to win outright, and Iowa has a great chance at winning this game. I think this is one of those years in Happy Valley where the ending is in sight for JoePa (pun intended) Iowa 24 Penn State 13. Confidence 3 out of 5 seafood towers.
Army -2.5 @ Miami (OH) - Big Dobs paid the points last week with Cin at home against Miami (OH) and it paid off big time. Miami couldn't even score a point on a very mediocre Bearcats D, which is more pathetic than Uncle Jesse living in Danny Tanner's attic with his wife and two kids. This is a really really really shitty team and Army isn't half bad. I don't see Miami stopping the Army running game, and I don't see Miami keeping it close enough to have a shot to win in the end. This is a game that Army knows it needs to win to keep in the bowl hunt, and I'll take the Army any time when it's a question of motivation. Army 31 Miami 10. Confidence 4 out 5 Malibu beachfront homes.
Air Force +16 @ Notre Dame - This is a situation where Big Dobs doesn't see Air Force winning, but over 2 TDs is way too much. Air Force is a solid team and Big Dobs rarely bets against the academies. Notre Dame has been incredibly inconsistent this year, and although far more talented, it has a good chance at turning the ball over and playing down to the level of competition. How is this spread bigger than the one last week against Purdue? Notre Dame 24 Air Force 21. Confidence 3 out of 5 rolls of Hermes toilet paper.
Nebraska -11 vs Ohio State - Like Penn State, Ohio State is complete garbage and totally overrated. Nebraska was clowned last week by Wisconsin, welcome to the Big Ten, and will want to use this Ohio St game to show that it belongs. Look for a highly motivated Nebraska team to put its foot on the gas and not let up. I don't see how Ohio State scores. Nebraska 34 Ohio State 17. Confidence 3 out of 5 gold bars.
Texas +9.5 vs Oklahoma - The Red River Shootout has been decided by a touchdown or less in each of the last 4 years, even last year when TX couldn't even beat UCLA nor make a bowl game. This is a solid TX team, and although a much more talented OK team, it is overrated. I think TX has a legit shot of winning, this could be just like the '08 game. 9.5 is just too much in game that is always this tight. Oklahoma 31 Texas 28. Confidence 3 out of 5 50 acre hunting ranches.
LSU -14 vs Florida - LSU is battling Bama week in and week out for the number 1 ranking in the polls, and since neither team will lose margin of victory matters. LSU definitely saw what Bama did to Florida on the road last week so it will need to pull out everything to have just as good of a showing at home. Look for LSU to attack the gators non stop and try to earn a blowout victory. 2 TDs is a lot against a solid Florida team, but LSU is motivated to win by more than that. LSU 38 Florida 13. Confidence 3 out of 5 weekend getaways to Paris.
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